研究者基本情報

氏名

• 氏名

  Makoto SAITO

ホームページ・researchmap等のリンク

• ホームページ・researchmap等のリンク

  ホームページのリンクresearchmapのリンク

所属・職名

• Department of Economics, Professor

学歴

• Sep. 1988, Jun. 1992, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Graduate School, Division of Economics, Economics
• Mar. 1983, Kyoto University, Faculty of Economics, Economics

学位

• 01 Jun. 1992, Doctor of Philosophy in the field of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 経済学関係, Ｅssays on the risk premium in the U.S. financial markets

職歴

• Apr. 2019, 9999, Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics, Professor
• Apr. 2024
• Apr. 2001, Mar. 2019, Hitotsubashi University, Graduate School of Economics, Professor
• 01 Oct. 2010, 31 Mar. 2012, The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy, Visiting Professor
• 01 Oct. 2006, 30 Sep. 2009, The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy, Visiting Professor
• 01 Apr. 1998, 31 Mar. 2001, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, Associate Professor
• 01 Jul. 1995, 31 Mar. 1998, Kyoto University, Faculty of Economics, Associate Professor
• 01 Jul. 1992, 30 Jun. 1995, The University of British Columbia, Department of Economics, Assistant Professor
• 01 Sep. 1987, 31 Aug. 1988, Stanford University, Department of Economics, Visiting Scholar
• 01 Apr. 1983, 31 Aug. 1987, The Sumitomo Trust and Banking Co., Ltd.

本学就任年月日

• Apr. 2025

研究分野

• macroeconomics
• monetary economics
• financal economics

研究活動

論文

• On expenditure/income discrepancies in national accounts in the presence of two price units, Makoto Saito, Japan and the World Economy, 64, 101161, 101161, Dec. 2022, Elsevier BV, This paper demonstrates that expenditure/income discrepancies appearing in national accounts are caused partly by the nominal distortion due to the presence of two price units, and partly by the real distortion due to the mismeasurement of expenditure items. In addition, it investigates how such statistical discrepancies reveal potentially important information about various informal, though not necessarily illegal, economic activities, which are not grasped fully by statistical or tax authorities in a central government. Three cases are explored in detail. First, after-consumption-tax prices are mixed with before-consumption-tax prices in aggregating expenditures. Second, black-market prices coexist with official prices in a heavily controlled economy. Third, prices are quoted in not only a conventional currency unit, but also a more valuable cryptocurrency unit; however, the latter unit is still evaluated one to one with the former. Unlike in macroeconomic disequilibrium models, statistical discrepancies are not ex ante concepts, but they actually occur ex post. This paper examines how ex post excess demand/supply within the formal economy, resulting from such discrepancies, is adjusted by monetary and nonmonetary interactions with the informal or underground economy.

  DOI
• International capital flows, portfolio composition, and the stability of external imbalances, Michael B. Devereux; Makoto Saito; Changhua Yu, Journal of International Economics, 127, 1, 24, Nov. 2020, Elsevier BV, This paper develops a simple and tractable model of net capital flows in which time-varying gross country portfolios are an essential element in current account imbalances. The main constituents of country portfolios in the model are general derivatives, which could be interpreted as nominal bond assets and liabilities in particular. Under very weak conditions, the world wealth distribution is stationary. Stationarity is generated by movements in derivative (i.e., bond) risk-premia such that the return on a debtor country's gross liabilities is less than the return on its gross assets. This is well known feature of the US international investment position. We also provide suggestive evidence that a similar property holds more widely for a sample of advanced and emerging market countries.

  DOI
• On a Popular Image that Credit Money is Handed Over from One Person to Another: A Reconsideration of Two Credit Money Descriptions by an Anthropologist and a Historian, Makoto Saito, 72, 1・2, 1, 10, Sep. 2024
• 46, 71, 80, Mar. 2023
• 44, 29, 68, Dec. 2021
• Public Perceptions of Earthquake Risk and the Impact on Land Pricing: The Case of the Uemachi Fault Line in Japan (jointly worked), Tao Gu; Masayuki Nakagawa; Makoto Saito; Hisaki Yamaga, The Japanese Economic Review, 69, 4, 374, 393, Dec. 2018

  DOI
• 93, 20, 27, Jul. 2014
• PERSISTENT CATASTROPHIC SHOCKS AND EQUITY PREMIUMS: A NOTE, Makoto Saito; Shiba Suzuki, MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, 18, 5, 1161, 1171, Jul. 2014, CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, This note demonstrates analytically that a persistent catastrophic shock on endowment growth, even if moderate, yields negative equity premiums when a representative agent is relatively prudent. In particular, it derives the minimum persistence necessary to have zero equity premiums.

  DOI
• 92, 29, 35, Apr. 2014
• 165, 196, Jan. 2014
• Jan. 2014
• Jan. 2014
• On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan, Kiyotaka Nakashima; Makoto Saito, JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES, 26, 3, 454, 471, Sep. 2012, ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, Nakashima, Kiyotaka, and Saito, Makoto-On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan Using Japanese money market data, this paper compares the predictive ability of the log-log specification with infinite elasticity at a zero interest rate and the semilog specification with a one time switch from moderate to relatively high semielasticity at annual interest rates less than 0.5%. We find that the latter specification dominates the former in terms of predictive ability for the extremely low interest rate regime (the period between 1999 and 2006) because under the former the semielasticity is excessively sensitive to slight changes in interest rates. We find that interest rate semielasticity has remained stable at a high level since the mid-1990s. J. Japanese Int. Economies 26 (3) (2012) 454-471. Faculty of Economics, Konan University, Okamoto 8-9-1, Higashinada, Kobe 658-8501, Japan; Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  DOI
• Light-water Reactors as Ordinary Industrial Technology, 59, 4, 22, 32, Mar. 2012
• 84, 10, 17, Mar. 2012
• 16, 27, 41, Dec. 2011
• A macroeconomic thought on stringent capital requirements, Hitotsubashi business review, 59, 2, 38, 48, Dec. 2011
• 4, 1, 19, Aug. 2011

  関連URL
• 46, Jul. 2011
• A Note on the Mechanism behind the Earthquake Insurance Purchase Decision by Households in Tokyo (in Japanese) (jointly worked), Saito Makoto; Tao Gu, Hitotsubashi economics, 5, 1, 75, 82, Jul. 2011

  DOI
• 79, 18, 25, Jan. 2011
• 193, 234, Oct. 2010
• 165, 191, Oct. 2010
• 65, 162, Oct. 2010
• 3, Apr. 2010
• 27, 27, 3, 24, Mar. 2010
• The risk management of social capital, Transportation & economy, 70, 1, 23, 28, Jan. 2010
• On the intergenerational sharing of cohort-specific shocks on permanent income (jointly worked), K. Miyazaki; M. Saito; T. Yamada, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14, 93, 118, Jan. 2010
• On the consumption insurance effects of long-term care insurance in Japan: Evidence from micro household data (jointly worked), Y. Iwamoto; M. Kohara; M. Saito, Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 24, 99, 115, Jan. 2010
• Risk Premiums versus Waiting-Options Premiums: A Simple Numerical Example, Kenji Miyazaki; Makoto Saito, B E JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL ECONOMICS, 9, 1, 2009, BERKELEY ELECTRONIC PRESS, This paper investigates how interest rates on liquid assets and excess returns on risky assets are determined when only safe assets can be used as liquid assets when waiting for an informative signal of future payoffs. In particular, we carefully differentiate between a demand for liquid assets while waiting for new information and a demand for safe assets for precautionary reasons. Employing Kreps--Porteus preferences, numerical examples demonstrate that larger waiting-options premiums (lower interest rates) emerge with higher risk aversion in combination with more elastic intertemporal substitution.
• Earthquake risks and land prices: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan area, Masayuki Nakagawa; Makoto Saito; Hisaki Yamaga, Japanese Economic Review, 60, 2, 208, 222, 2009, The current paper empirically addresses risk aversion of households and firms toward earthquake risks using a hazard map compiled for the entire region by the Tokyo metropolitan government in 1998. It finds strong evidence for the impact of earthquake risks on land pricing land prices have been substantially lower in risky areas than in safe areas. That impact became more evident in the 1990s than in the 1980s, indicating that households and firms were becoming more sensitive to earthquake risks. In addition, this paper carefully examines the consistency of the estimated magnitude of earthquake risk premiums within a framework of the expected utility hypothesis. © 2008 The Authors Journal compilation © 2008 Japanese Economic Association.

  DOI
• Incomplete financial markets, irreversibility of investments and fiscal and monetary policy instruments, Kenji Miyazaki; Kiyohiko G. Nishimura; Makoto Saito, Japanese Economic Review, 60, 3, 271, 300, 2009, In this paper, we analyse the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to improve long-run welfare when productive investment is irreversible and uncollateralizable and there is no insurance. Only fiat money or government issued bonds provide self-insurance. We demonstrate that an increase in precautionary savings reduces irreversible productive investment. Hence, subsidies to promote productive but irreversible investment should be financed in such a way that they do not reduce insurance capability. When lump-sum subsidies are high, a consumption tax is likely to be more redistributive and thus more consumption smoothing than are the other sets of instruments analysed in our model. © Journal compilation © 2009 Japanese Economic Association.

  DOI
• On empirical implications of highly interest-elastic money demand: A Note (jointly worked), Kiyotaka Nakashima; Makoto Saito, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 50, 1, 29, 34, Jan. 2009

  関連URL
• Credit spreads on corporate bonds and the macroeconomy in Japan (jointly worked), K. Nakashima; M. Saito, Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 23, 3, 309, 331, Jan. 2009
• 46, 10, 40, 48, Oct. 2008
• 28, 27, 68, Aug. 2008
• 187, 222, Jan. 2007
• 3, 34, Jan. 2007
• Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Masayuki Nakagawa; Makoto Saito; Hisaki Yamaga, REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS, 37, 1, 87, 99, Jan. 2007, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, We estimate the extent of earthquake risk aversion in housing rents using a 1998 hazard map of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. These rents reflect earthquake risk generally and the interaction between the earthquake-resistant quality of construction and the risk aversion of households. We find that housing rents are substantially lower in risky areas than in safer areas, even after controlling for other possible effects, and that the rent of an apartment built prior to the Building Standard Law being amended is discounted more substantially in risky areas than those built after this date. In addition, according to a cost-benefit analysis based on these estimation results, investment in earthquake-proof structures is profitable for landlords who own older wood-framed apartment buildings in relatively risky areas given the current level of the government subsidy introduced in 2002. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  DOI
• Forward discount puzzle and official interventions: An empirical note (jointly worked), Y. Fukuta; M. Saito, Osaka Economic Papers, 57, 2, 25, 35, Jan. 2007
• A comment: Stock market liquidity and the macroeconomy by Woon Gyu Choi and David Cook, Makoto Saito, Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose, eds., Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, Oct. 2006
• What caused fixed investment to stagnate during the 1990s in Japan? Evidence from panel data of listed companies, Keiichi Hori; Makoto Saito; Koichi Ando, Japanese Economic Review, 57, 2, 283, 306, Jun. 2006, Taking into account considerable changes in the corporate finance behaviour of listed Japanese companies during the 1990s, this paper empirically investigates the causes of the stagnation of the listed companies' fixed investment during the 1990s, using panel data from the companies' financial statements. Our findings include the following: (i) while positive cash flow sensitivity was detected for the companies listed during the 1990s, it was not necessarily a consequence of the binding of liquidity constraints (ii) declines in Tobin's q explain decreases in fixed investment throughout the 1990s and (iii) the holding of liquid assets acted as a buffer against liquidity shocks. © 2006 The Authors Journal compilation © 2006 Japanese Economic Association.

  DOI
• A note on the robustness of the tobin effect in incomplete markets, Makoto Saito; Yosuke Takeda, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 10, 1, 131, 143, 2006, Taking Dutta and Kapur's study (Review of Economic Studies 65, 551-572, 1998) as a case of the Tobin effect, this note investigates the extent to which the Tobin effect persists with the addition of sophisticated financial instruments in incomplete markets. On one hand, after dynamic contracts are introduced to the fullest extent, money demand as a precautionary device is crowded out completely, and there is thus no room for the Tobin effect to persist. On the other hand, the Tobin effect may be strengthened under conditions of coexistence of fiat money and dynamic insurance contracts with limited transfers thanks to relaxed incentive compatibility conditions in a moderately inflationary environment. © 2006 Cambridge University Press.

  DOI
• On effects of the Hyogo earthquake on household consumption : A note (jointly worked), Miki Kohara; Fumio Ohtake; Makoto Saito, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 47, 2, 219, 228, Jan. 2006

  関連URL
• 88, 106, Jun. 2005
• 77, 100, May 2005
• Equity Repurchases and Corporate Value -Evidence from Different Legal Procedures in Japan-, The Economic review, 56, 1, 30, 41, Jan. 2005, This paper empirically investigates which events affect stock pricing through equity repurchases, the announcement of board meetings, the approval by general meetings of stockholders, or the incident of actual purchases, thereby clarifying the motivation behind equity repurchases. In particular, it attempts to exploit differences in legal procedures in Japanese corporate financing. The estimation results demonstrate that the repurchase based on the 1994 amendment to the Commercial Law is more consistent with the free cash-flow hypothesis, while the repurchase made under the special code enforced in 1997 is more agreeable with the signaling hypothesis. No evidence is found for liquidity impacts of repurchases on stock pricing.
• Preference for early resolution and commitment, Kenji Miyazaki; Makoto Saito, Finance Research Letters, 1, 2, 113, 118, Apr. 2004, In this paper, we explore the result of Epstein [Int. Econ. Rev. 21 (1980) 269] using a more general utility function that incorporates Kreps-Porteus preferences. We demonstrate that consumers postpone a commitment to non-durable consumption and hold more liquid assets not only by a high degree of intertemporal substitution but also by a preference for the early resolution of uncertainty. We also discuss a potential advantage of Kreps-Porteus preferences in examining the interaction between asset pricing and liquidity demand. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  DOI
• On alternatives to aggregate demand policies to revitalize the Japanese Economy (jointly worked), K. G. Nishimura; M. Saito, Asian Economic Papers, 2, 3, 87, 126, Jan. 2004
• 49, 24, 32, Jan. 2003
• 22, 3, 1, 22, Jan. 2003
• 14, 79, 96, Jan. 2003
• Precautionary motives versus waiting options: Evidence from aggregate household saving in Japan (jointly worked), Makoto Saito; Shigenori Shiratsuka, Monetary and Economic Studies, 21, 3, 1, 20, Jan. 2003, Exploiting theoretical implications for saving motives under uncertainty proposed by Epstein (1980), this paper empirically examines which motive is more dominant in aggregate household savings in Japan, precautionary savings or savings as waiting options. The former motive is driven by the magnitude of risks, while the latter is promoted by the subsequent resolution of uncertainty. Empirical results indicate that saving behavior since the 1980s is more consistent with precautionary savings; however, estimation results from the behavior during the 1990s offer some evidence in favor of savings as waiting options.

  関連URL
• A test of the full insurance hypothesis: The case of Japan, M Kohara; F Ohtake; M Saito, JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES, 16, 3, 335, 352, Sep. 2002, ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, Exploiting the pane! data structure of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, compiled from 1989 to 1997 by the Japanese Bureau of Statistics, this paper explores how effectively idiosyncratic shocks are shared among consumers in Japan. Tests are conducted for the total consumption, together with each category of consumption expenditures. Exploring possible theoretical interpretations of estimated parameters, this paper shows that the full insurance hypothesis is rejected statistically, but that a large fraction of idiosyncratic shocks are still insured in markets or other mechanisms. It also points out that the extent of risk sharing among households in Japan is fairly similar to that in the United States. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

  DOI
• 209, 224, Jun. 2002
• 127, 156, Jun. 2002
• 195, 237, Jun. 2002
• 7, 51, 62, Jan. 2002
• 46, 1, 21, Jan. 2002
• Forward discount puzzle and liquidity effects: Some evidence from exchange rates among the United States, Canada, and Japan, Yuichi Fukuta; Makoto Saito, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34, 4, 1014, 1033, 2002, Ohio State University Press, This paper empirically examines whether the interaction between foreign exchange markets and monetary markets can help to resolve the forward discount puzzle. Following the monetary models of Lucas (1990) and Fuerst (1992), we define as liquidity effects (the negative impact of monetary injection on nominal interest rates), temporary deviations from the standard Euler equation. The liquidity effect identified by these models weakens the linkage between current forward rates and expected future spot rates, and improves on the standard rational expectations model that predicts a one-to-one correspondence between the two. Using time series of exchange rates among the United States, Canada, and Japan, this paper shows that the liquidity measure identified above has an impact on forward premiums, and that once the liquidity effect is taken into consideration, the unbiased prediction of the forward discount rate is recovered to some extent in a theoretically consistent manner.

  DOI
• 32, 40, Oct. 2001
• Liguidity and Asset Pricing : A Note, Makoto Saito, The Hitotsubashi review, 126, 4, 386, 399, Oct. 2001

  DOI
• 177, 200, Jul. 2001
• 66, 77, Apr. 2001
• 36, 4, 547, 560, Apr. 2001
• 9, 67, 82, Apr. 2001
• 52, 2, 97, 106, Apr. 2001

  関連URL
• On the Welfare Loss of Families with Members in Need of Long-Term Nursing Care, IWAMOTO Yasushi; KOHARA Miki; SAITO Makoto, The Quarterly of social security research, 36, 4, 547, 560, 2001
• Financial crises as the failure of arbitrage: Implications for monetary policy (jointly worked), Makoto Saito; Shigenori Shiratsuka, Monetary and Economic Studies, 19, 1, 239, 270, Jan. 2001

  関連URL
• An empirical investigation of Intergenerational consumption distribution - A comparison among Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, M Saito, AGING ISSUES IN THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN, 135, 167, 2001, UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
• 3, 148, 160, Oct. 2000
• 124, 140, Apr. 2000
• 53, 2, 21, 37, Apr. 2000
• 29, 45, Jan. 2000
• 12, 28, Jan. 2000
• 3, 233, 240, Apr. 1999
• 35, 1, 65, 76, Apr. 1999
• 51, 5, 27, Apr. 1999
• On the market risk involved in the public financial system in Japan: A theoretical and numerical investigation, Kenji Miyazaki; Makoto Saito, Journal of Banking and Finance, 23, 8, 1243, 1259, 1999, Elsevier, Treating the postal savings system and the fiscal investments and loans program in Japan as an integrated financial institution, this paper analyzes the market risk involved in this system. For this purpose, the paper pays particular attention to options embedded in both assets and liabilities. This paper finds that (1) the current rule for determining interest rates on the postal savings account well reflects the values of the embedded put options, and (2) due to the flexible options, the system tends to entail high market risks. In particular, as spot rates go up, the duration of liabilities becomes extremely short with anticipation of early withdrawal. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V.

  DOI
• Dynamic allocation and pricing in incomplete markets, M. Saito, Monetary and Economic Studies, 17, 1, 45, 75, Jan. 1999
• May 1998
• 36, 7, 27, 49, Apr. 1998
• A simple model of incomplete insurance: The case of permanent shocks, M. Saito, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 22, 5, 763, 777, Jan. 1998
• Incomplete insurance and non-expected utility, Makoto Saito, Japanese Economic Review, 49, 3, 271, 283, 1998, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, This paper shows that the estimation of non-expected utility (Kreps-Porteus preference) based on the representative agent model is less robust with respect to the departure from complete markets than is the expected utility for the following reasons. First, the precautionary saving caused by uninsured shocks may be evaluated incorrectly. Second, the portfolio held by individual household includes not only marketable assets, but also non-marketable assets (e.g. human capital) in the context of incomplete markets. Third, returns on marketable assets may not provide sufficient information for recovering relevant parameters. The estimated parameters available from the existing empirical research are consistent with the biasedness of parameters implied by this study.

  DOI
• Estimating the effects of monetary shocks: An evaluation of different approaches (jointly worked), P. Beaudry; M. Saito, Journal of Monetary Economics, 42, 2, 241, 260, Jan. 1998
• Population aging and consumption inequality in Japan (jointly worked), F. Ohtake; M. Saito, The Review of Income and Wealth, 44, 3, 361, 381, Jan. 1998

  DOI
• Asset pricing in Japan: A communication (jointly worked), K. Nakano; M. Saito, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 12, 2, 151, 166, Jan. 1998
• On numerical calculation programs of American-type options using GAUSS codes (jointly worked), K. Miyazaki; M. Saito, Osaka Economic Papers, 48, 2, 25, 54, Jan. 1998
• 1, 5, 18, Apr. 1997
• A note on ergodic distributions in two-agent economies, M Saito, JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS, 27, 2, 133, 141, 1997, ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE, This paper analytically characterizes the wealth distribution of two types of agents where each agent's wealth evolves according to an Ito process with time-varying drifts and diffusions. The paper proposes a simple method to derive a condition under which the wealth distribution is uniquely ergodic. An intuitive explanation of this condition is discussed.
• Growth and risk sharing with incomplete international assets markets (jointly worked), M. Devereux; M. Saito, Journal of International Economics, 42, 3, 453, 481, Jan. 1997
• 33, 11, 11, 35, Apr. 1996
• Development of modern macroeconomics: An expository note, M. Saito, The Kyoto University Economic Review, 65, 1, 43, 52, Jan. 1995
• A studly of household investment patterns in Japan: An application of generalized Tobit model (jointly worked), T. Amemiya; M. Saito; K. Shimono, Economic Studies Quarterly, 44, 1, 13, 28, Jan. 1993, JAPANESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, In this paper we analyze the investment patterns of Japanese households using three kinds of generalized Tobit models. We consider the following three types of investments: (1) bank deposits, (2) long-term income-gain assets, and (3) capital-gain assets. Generalized Tobit models are called for because there are households which do not possess either or both of the last two types of assets. In our data every household does possess the first type of asset, and this fact will be incorporated into our models as a priori specification. The three models we estimate are a simultaneous equations Tobit model, a Dubin-McFadden type model, and a sequential Tobit model. The first model arises from a Kuhn-Tucker solution to the maximization of a quadratic utility function subject to the constraint that the sum of the investments into the three types of assets is equal to an exogenously-determined value of the total assets of a household. The second model is based on the assumption that there are fixed costs of owning the last two types of assets. Finally, the last model is derived from the assumption that a household first determines the amount of the first type of asset it should hold and second allocates whatever left into the other two types of assets. Simpler, more obvious ways to analyze our data are available, such as ordinary least squares, probit and logit, and standard Tobit. These estimates are also reported and compared with our elaborate estimates in a later section.

Misc

• 27 Feb. 2025
• 2025年冬号, 1, 9, Jan. 2025
• 25 Dec. 2024
• 16 Dec. 2024
• 08 Jul. 2024
• Jun. 2024
• 03 Apr. 2024
• 2024, 72, 73, Apr. 2024
• The direction of fiscal and monetary policy: Be cautious and avoid slapdash normalization, Makoto Saito, Discuss Japan, Jan. 2024, Japan Foreign Policy Forum
• 24 Oct. 2023
• 609, 49, 55, Jul. 2023
• Jun. 2023
• 62, 63, 04 Apr. 2023
• 2022年9月20日, Sep. 2022
• 2022年7月号, 118, 128, Jul. 2022
• 151, 4, 6, May 2022
• Nov. 2021
• Jul. 2021
• On local, gradual, and long-term policy responses to COVID-19 in Japan, 70, 4, Jul. 2021
• 14 Mar. 2021
• Mar. 2021
• 58, 12, Dec. 2020
• 28 Jul. 2020
• 12 Jun. 2020
• 718, May 2020
• Apr. 2020
• 20 Mar. 2020
• 20年冬季号, Jan. 2020
• Japan's Aging Metropolis: Imperatives and Perils of Suburban Renewal, Makoto Saito, 01 Apr. 2019
• 15 Dec. 2018
• 15 Oct. 2018
• Jul. 2018
• 23, 6, Jun. 2018
• 801, Apr. 2018
• 132, 1, 40, 48, Jan. 2018
• Apr. 2017

著書等出版物

• Oct. 2023
• Strong Money Demand in Financing War and Peace: The Cases of Wartime and Contemporary Japan, Makoto Saito, Springer, Aug. 2021
• Fresh and friendly guidance on the global economy, May 2021
• The realm of crises, Makoto Saito, Keiso-shobo, Apr. 2018
• Ageing population and deteriorated houses in urban areas (Editing and Writing), Makoto Saito, Keiso Shobo, Jan. 2018
• Apr. 2016
• Mar. 2016
• Jan. 2016
• Oct. 2015
• May 2015
• Aug. 2014
• Mar. 2012
• Oct. 2011
• Jun. 2010
• Apr. 2010
• Asset Pricing and Macroeconomy (in Japanese), Jun. 2007
• Dec. 2006
• Oct. 2006
• Jun. 2002
• Jun. 2002
• May 2002
• Oct. 2001
• Jul. 2001
• Jul. 2000
• Oct. 1999
• Oct. 1996
• Jan. 1996

講演・発表

• 12 Oct. 2014
• 22 Jun. 2014
• 14 Dec. 2013
• 14 Sep. 2013
• Participating in a panel discussion on The Electric Power Crisis in Japan, Makoto Saito, NBER Japan Project Meeting, 29 Jun. 2012, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo
• 20 May 2012
• 11 Dec. 2011
• 18 Sep. 2010
• 10 Jul. 2010
• 10 Jul. 2010
• 10 Jul. 2010
• 10 Jul. 2010
• 05 Jun. 2010
• 05 Jun. 2010
• "Can cross-border financial markets create good collateral in a crisis?" , jointly written with Shiba Suzuki and Tomoaki Yamada, Makoto Saito; Shiba Suzuki; Tomoaki Yamada, 2010 International Conference: Future of Central Banking under Globalization, 26 May 2010, 日本銀行金融研究所
• 10 Oct. 2009
• 10 Oct. 2009
• Participating in a program committee, 齊藤 誠, Far East and South Asia Meeting, 03 Aug. 2009, 東京大学
• 14 Sep. 2008
• 01 Jun. 2008
• 27 Nov. 2007
• 24 Sep. 2007
• 16 Jun. 2007
• 02 Jun. 2007
• "Credit spreads on corporate bonds and the macroeconomy in Japan", jointly written with Kiyotaka Nakashima, Kiyotaka Nakashima; Makoto Saito, The 8th CIRJE-TCER Macro Conference, 03 Feb. 2007
• "A two country model with country specific catastrophic shocks in the presence of solvency constraints", jointly written with Shiba Suzuki and Tomoaki Yamada, Saito Makoto; Shiba Suzuki; Tomoaki Yamada, 2006 Asia-Pacific Economic Association Annual Conference, 01 Jul. 2006, University of Washington, The United States
• "A portfolio theory of international capital flows," Michael B. Devereux and Makoto Saito, Makoto Saito, Research on Money and Markets, 01 Oct. 2005, Toronto University, Canada
• "On alternatives to aggressive demand policies to revitalize Japan's economy," with Kiyohiko Nishimura, Makoto Saito; Kiyohiko Nishimura, Asian Economic Panel, 01 Oct. 2002, Columbia University, The United States
• "Liquidity demand and asset pricing", Makoto Saito, NBER Summer Institute,Capital Markets in the Economy Workshop, 01 Jul. 2002, The United States
• "On aversion toward earthquake risks: Evidence from land pricing in Tokyo Metropolis", Makoto Saito, IIASA Integrated Disaster Risk Management Meeting, 01 Jul. 2002, Austria

受賞

• Apr. 2014, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, Medal with Purple Ribbon (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan)
• Feb. 2013
• Nov. 2012, Ishibashi Tanzan Prize (Ishibashi Tanzan Memorial Foundation)
• Dec. 2010, The Zengin Foundation Award (The Zengin Foundation for Studies on Economics and Finance)
• Apr. 2008, Economist Prize (THE MAINICHI NEWSPAPERS)
• Sep. 2007, Ishikawa Prize (Japanese Economic Association)
• May 2005, The JARES Prize (Japan Association for Real Estate Sciences)
• Oct. 2002, Okita Commemorative Award for Policy Research (NIRA: National Institute for Research Advancement)
• Nov. 2001, Nikkei Prize for Excellent Books in Economic Science (Japan Center for Economic Research)

競争的資金

• 22K01389, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, On compatibility between reducing wealth inequality and promoting economic growth in capital taxation
• 18K01720, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Analysis of fiscal policy by massive money issues during the controlled economy from 1937 to 1952, This research project analyzes how the Japanese fiscal and monetary policies worked during the two periods, including the controlled economy in the years 1937-1949, and the current economy from mid-1995. In the former period, the public debt, massively issued in excess of forced private savings, was sustained by strong money demand from domestic black markets and the occupied territories. In the latter period, on the other hand, huge amounts of public bonds have been supported by strong demand for BOJ notes and reserves, driven by near-zero interest rates. Strong money demand from black markets and the occupied territories was lost immediately after the war, and a long-term equilibrium was recovered by price surges and fiscal discipline. This postwar experience is quite suggestive in predicting how the current fiscal and monetary policy will evolve in the near and far future.
• 16K13350, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, A behavioral economic investigation into crisis management manual as behavioral norm, Based on a detailed analysis of Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant accident, which exploits publicly available documentations of the governmental accident investigation and the video-recorded conferences among the plant, the TEPCO headquarter, and the government, this study carries out intensively behavioral economic investigations into the compilation and implementation of crisis management. One of the most important elements for crisis management manuals is to carefully distinguish "relatively severe accidents" from "severest accidents," and to deliberately prepare manuals for each of the two types. Nevertheless, the TEPCO and the regulatory body classified the two types indiscriminately in advance, and failed to properly respond to the accident, which should have been considered "relatively severe," but was declared as "severest" at the very beginning of the accident. Accordingly, the accident indeed fell into a much more severe consequence than it should have.
• 17330041, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, On optimal security design and financial contract, In this research project, we investigate several aspects of optimal security design and financial contract empirically and theoretically. First, using the data of publicly placed Japanese ABSs (asset backed securities), we analyze the effect of adverse selection (i.e., sellers/issuers of ABSs have more precise information than buyers/investors) on swap spreads of the ABSs, and find significantly negative relationship between excess subordination by issuers and swap spreads at the issuance. We also investigate the effect of asymmetric information and design of trading system on stock prices by using the data of stock lending fees in Tokyo Stock Exchange, and show that short-sales constraints reduce the adjustment speed of stock prices to negative information. Second, we theoretically analyze several problems in risk sharing through security design (optimal risk transfer, optimal consumption, optimal investment policy, and so on) in the setting where agents have stochastic differential utilities (SDU). We show that the optimal policies are characterized as solutions of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) and obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for optimal policies. We also analyze the case where timing of risk-transfer is uncertain, and investigate risk transfer in the Knightian economy by using the robust utility maximization method proposed by Hansen and Sargent. In addition, we develop a model to describe stochastic movements of electricity prices and demands, and investigate desirable design of weather derivatives for electricity companies to hedge the risks of uncertain electricity prices and demands. Moreover, as an issue of financial contracting, we survey the relation between fund managers' fee schedule and their incentives, and investigate the relation between capital structures and stock returns to evaluate the benchmark for fund managers' performance measure.
• 12124207
• 11630011, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Policy Possibilities of the New Macroeconomics, We have had Macroeconomics Workshop 23 times from April 1999 to December 2001 and invited many researchers who are active in this field. Investigators who have taken a part of this project have been benefited from these researchers through the workshop. It is agreed that fiscal policies should not be used for the stabilizing policies frequently, for example, for reducing the unemployment level but should be used for internalizing market failures. We have reached the following conclusion: Monetary policies should be used to stabilize the economy. As for the labor market, it is shown that the larger retirement money the higher the cost of unemployment according to the worker discipline model. It is also shown that how long workers can get unemployment benefits is very important for unemployment policies. We have come to conclude that coordination of expectation is very important. Failures of coordination may lead to low levels of employment and output. However, we have not had good policy recommendations in this respect until now. This is a promising subject for future researches.
• 11630012, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Estimation of State-price Densities, This research project has constructed theoretical models to analyze how risk premium, liquidity premium, and convenience yields are reflected in derivative pricing, and empirically tested those models using derivative prices observed in financial markets in Japan. "Nonparametric estimation of state-price densities : An application of the local polynomial estimator" by Takagi and Saito (under review) estimates state-price densities using the index option prices listed in the Osaka Stock Exchange. In particular, this study applies local polynomial estimators, one of nonparametric estimators, in consideration for fewer points of exercise prices in the OSE. Saito and Ohnishi (2001) investigate the impact of changes in securities included in the Nikkei Index in April 2000, and find that individual stock prices reflected changes in market liquidity significantly. Fukuta, Saito, and Takagi (forthcoming) quantify convenience yields on JGBs exploiting the information of interest-rate swap spreads, and identify several factors, which contribute to yielding convenience. Fukuta and Saito (forthcoming), on the other hand, empirically examines the liquidity effect on forward exchange rates.
• 10113206
• 09730008, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists (A)
• 08209115
• 08730006, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists (A)
• JP22K01389, On compatibility between reducing wealth inequality and promoting economic growth in capital taxation
• 18K01720, Analysis of fiscal policy by massive money issues during the controlled economy from 1937 to 1952, This research project analyzes how the Japanese fiscal and monetary policies worked during the two periods, including the controlled economy in the years 1937-1949, and the current economy from mid-1995. In the former period, the public debt, massively issued in excess of forced private savings, was sustained by strong money demand from domestic black markets and the occupied territories. In the latter period, on the other hand, huge amounts of public bonds have been supported by strong demand for BOJ notes and reserves, driven by near-zero interest rates. Strong money demand from black markets and the occupied territories was lost immediately after the war, and a long-term equilibrium was recovered by price surges and fiscal discipline. This postwar experience is quite suggestive in predicting how the current fiscal and monetary policy will evolve in the near and far future.
• 16K13350, A behavioral economic investigation into crisis management manual as behavioral norm, Based on a detailed analysis of Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant accident, which　exploits publicly available documentations of the governmental accident investigation and the video-recorded conferences among the plant, the TEPCO headquarter, and the government, this study carries out intensively behavioral economic investigations into the compilation and implementation of crisis management. One of the most important elements for crisis management manuals is to carefully distinguish "relatively severe accidents" from "severest accidents," and to deliberately prepare manuals for each of the two types. Nevertheless, the TEPCO and the regulatory body classified the two types indiscriminately in advance, and failed to properly respond to the accident, which should have been considered "relatively severe," but was declared as "severest" at the very beginning of the accident. Accordingly, the accident indeed fell into a much more severe consequence than it should have.
• 24243032, A research on efficient usages of land and housing stocks in downsizing urban areas, Intensively employing digital geographic information, including the Population Census, the Public Notice of Land Prices, and the Housing Land Survey, this study carries out detailed empirical investigations into the interaction among population dynamics and movements, the allocation of land and housing stocks, and land and rent pricing in downsizing urban areas including the metropolitan area and the government-designated cities.;In the near future, probably starting from the 2020s, the suburbs of the urban areas will experience two-way negative impacts on land pricing. One impact will come from the peripheries with land prices declining as a result of population shrinking and aging, while the other will come from the core with those slumping as negative externality effects of aging apartment houses. In these regards, this study proposes policy recommendations for changes in land usages and reformation of public facilities.
• 19530149, On the determination mechanism of bilateral flow of funds among countries, Employing several models of international finance, in particular some two-country models with incomplete markets, we have constructed a case where bilateral flow of funds emerges between two countries to share country-specific shocks, including catastrophic ones. One of the most important implications from our theoretical investigation is that expanding external balance sheets by holding large-scale long and short positions would help to improve risk-sharing among countries. In addition to the above research, we have investigated how catastrophic shocks including natural disaster and health deterioration may be shared among domestic agents using both theoretical and empirical methods.
• 17530140, Risk Averse Behavior toward Natural Disaster and Real Estate Pricing : Evidence from Earthquakes and Floods, This project has yielded the following three outcomes in regard to the relationship between natural disaster risks and real estate pricing.;Firstly, we have successfully published in important English refereed journals, our continuing research on the relationship between earthquake risks and real estate pricing based on Tokyo metropolitan data. Nakagawa, Saito, and Yamaga (2007, forthcoming in Japanese Economic Review) present evidence for negative impacts of earthquake risks on land pricing, and demonstrate that the estimated impact is consistent with predictions from standard expected utility theory. Nakagawa et al. (2007, Regional Science and Urban Economics), on the other hand, show that earthquake-risk mitigation investment is beneficial for owners who operate apartment buildings in less robust areas based on the empirical study concerning the relationship between earthquake risks and apartment rents;Secondly, we have built a geographic infromation database to empirically explore the relationship between flood risks and land pricing. More concretely, we translate both the flood hazard map compiled by Aichi Prefecture and the official land prices into GIS-based data. Using this database, we will investigate how land prices responded to Tokai Floods that occurred in 2000, and how land prices have been influenced by several flood prevention measures which were implemented by local governments (mainly by Nagoya city).;Thirdly, based on the above empirical investigation, Makoto Saito, head investigator, contributed several articles on natural disaster prevention policies to newspapers and magazines
• 17330041, On optimal security design and financial contract, In this research project, we investigate several aspects of optimal security design and financial contract empirically and theoretically. First, using the data of publicly placed Japanese ABSs (asset backed securities), we analyze the effect of adverse selection (i.e., sellers/issuers of ABSs have more precise information than buyers/investors) on swap spreads of the ABSs, and find significantly negative relationship between excess subordination by issuers and swap spreads at the issuance. We also investigate the effect of asymmetric information and design of trading system on stock prices by using the data of stock lending fees in Tokyo Stock Exchange, and show that short-sales constraints reduce the adjustment speed of stock prices to negative information.;Second, we theoretically analyze several problems in risk sharing through security design (optimal risk transfer, optimal consumption, optimal investment policy, and so on) in the setting where agents have stochastic differential utilities (SDU). We show that the optimal policies are characterized as solutions of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) and obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for optimal policies. We also analyze the case where timing of risk-transfer is uncertain, and investigate risk transfer in the Knightian economy by using the robust utility maximization method proposed by Hansen and Sargent.;In addition, we develop a model to describe stochastic movements of electricity prices and demands, and investigate desirable design of weather derivatives for electricity companies to hedge the risks of uncertain electricity prices and demands. Moreover, as an issue of financial contracting, we survey the relation between fund managers' fee schedule and their incentives, and investigate the relation between capital structures and stock returns to evaluate the benchmark for fund managers' performance measure.
• 12124207
• 11630012, Estimation of State-price Densities, This research project has constructed theoretical models to analyze how risk premium, liquidity premium, and convenience yields are reflected in derivative pricing, and empirically tested those models using derivative prices observed in financial markets in Japan. "Nonparametric estimation of state-price densities : An application of the local polynomial estimator" by Takagi and Saito (under review) estimates state-price densities using the index option prices listed in the Osaka Stock Exchange. In particular, this study applies local polynomial estimators, one of nonparametric estimators, in consideration for fewer points of exercise prices in the OSE. Saito and Ohnishi (2001) investigate the impact of changes in securities included in the Nikkei Index in April 2000, and find that individual stock prices reflected changes in market liquidity significantly. Fukuta, Saito, and Takagi (forthcoming) quantify convenience yields on JGBs exploiting the information of interest-rate swap spreads, and identify several factors, which contribute to yielding convenience. Fukuta and Saito (forthcoming), on the other hand, empirically examines the liquidity effect on forward exchange rates.
• 11630011, Policy Possibilities of the New Macroeconomics, We have had Macroeconomics Workshop 23 times from April 1999 to December 2001 and invited many researchers who are active in this field. Investigators who have taken a part of this project have been benefited from these researchers through the workshop.;It is agreed that fiscal policies should not be used for the stabilizing policies frequently, for example, for reducing the unemployment level but should be used for internalizing market failures. We have reached the following conclusion: Monetary policies should be used to stabilize the economy.;As for the labor market, it is shown that the larger retirement money the higher the cost of unemployment according to the worker discipline model. It is also shown that how long workers can get unemployment benefits is very important for unemployment policies.;We have come to conclude that coordination of expectation is very important. Failures of coordination may lead to low levels of employment and output. However, we have not had good policy recommendations in this respect until now. This is a promising subject for future researches.
• 10113206
• 09730008
• 08730006
• 08209115

学外活動

学協会活動

• Association of Behavioral Economics and Finance
• The Japan Society of Monetary Economics
• Nippon Finance Association
• Canadian Economics Association
• Japanese Economic Association